iMetal

A protracted slump in crude prices has ramped up the pressure on Big Oil’s commitment to allocate cash to shareholders.
Western energy supermajors have long sought to return cash to investors through buyback programs and dividends to keep their shareholders happy. Energy executives have also expressed confidence that they can continue to reward investors following a relatively robust set of first-quarter earnings.
Some analysts, however, are less convinced about Big Oil’s pledge to return ever-higher shareholder returns, citing already stretched balance sheets and a sharp drop in crude prices.
Oil prices have fallen more than 12% year-to-date amid persistent demand concerns and U.S. President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth trade policy.
Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at consultancy Rystad Energy, said recent market volatility has left the energy majors with “few economically attractive options” that allow for reinvestment while maintaining a competitive capital returns framework.
“As companies like Shell and ExxonMobil continue to push ahead with large-scale buyback programs despite shrinking cash inflows, the durability of these strategies is in question. For now, the majors are holding the line. But if oil prices remain depressed, adjustments may be inevitable,” Erlingsen said in a research note published Thursday.
Share buybacks, which are typically more flexible than dividends, are “likely to be the first lever pulled,” he added. In that vein, weaker crude prices mean energy majors will have less cash to return to shareholders.